it is estimated that 40%, 40% of all votes will be cast before election day. joining me now to talk about what that means and a whole lot of other stuff, former pennsylvania governor, ed rendell, now an nbc news political analyst and robert traynam. good afternoon to both of you. governor, let me start with you. in the last week, both candidates have released ads where they're looking straight into the camera, stating their cases. it seemed to me, at least, that these might be closing ads. is that what we're seeing already? >> well, sure. the early voting's changed the whole tenor of campaigning. in the old days, 20, 30 years ago, governor romney would have had literally, out of the 39 days, he would have had close to 39 days to turn it around. but now with a good chunk of the electorate, maybe a fifth or a fourth, he's got to move very, very quickly. it puts even greater pressure on the debate coming up this week. that's make or break for the romney campaign, no ifs, ands, or buts about it. i expect he'll do pretty well. he mopped the floor in those republica